St. Clair County feels brunt of migration
Madison, Monroe counties benefit the most from shift
BY JENNIFER KAPIOLANI SAXTON
News-Democrat

Despite booming housing markets in O'Fallon, Shiloh, Belleville and Millstadt, a new study shows that people are moving from St. Clair County to other parts of the St. Louis region.

The study, by Dr. David H. Laslo from the Public Policy Research Center at the University of Missouri-St. Louis, showed that in 2003, St. Clair had a net loss of 830 people, most of them moving to Madison and Monroe counties.

Over an 11-year period, from 1993-2003, an average of 1,202 people a year moved out of St. Clair County to other parts of the St. Louis area.

St. Clair County Board Chairman Mark Kern said the continued growth in the county as seen through the number of new homes and subdivisions being built does not appear to coincide with the IRS numbers.

"The Realtors are saying that homes are selling very well," Kern said. "The new home starts continue to rise every day, generally countywide."

The study analyzed IRS data exclusively and did not take births, deaths or other census information into account. The 2000 census showed the county's population was down 2.6 percent.

The study looked at the trends of people migrating throughout the 12 counties that make up the St. Louis Metropolitan area: Clinton, Jersey, Madison, Monroe and St. Clair in Illinois, and Warren, Franklin, Jefferson, Lincoln, St. Charles, St. Louis County and the city of St. Louis in Missouri.

Laslo found that in 2003:

• The entire St. Louis region had a net loss of 1,131 people;

• A total of 818 people moved into the five Illinois counties from the seven Missouri counties in the region, while 267 moved from Illinois to Missouri, for a net gain of 551 people.

• Madison County had the biggest influx of people from Missouri with 350, followed by Monroe with 279 and St. Clair County with 129.

• Of the five Illinois counties, Madison had the biggest net gain of people moving from elsewhere in the St. Louis region with 534, while St. Clair had the biggest net loss of people moving to elsewhere in the St. Louis region with 779.

• The biggest number of people who moved to Madison County came from St. Clair County, 312, followed by St. Louis County, 304. The county to which Madison lost the most people was Jersey, 51.

Over the 11-year period:

• The entire St. Louis region had an average annual loss of 3,577 people.

• St. Clair County showed an average annual loss of 1,375, while Madison County had an average gain of 112 people and Monroe County had an average gain of 460 people each year.

• St. Louis County and the city of St. Louis had a combined average loss of 11,693 people each year during the period.

"It just gives an indication of the trend," said Laslo, who is the director of Metropolitan Information and Data Analysis Service in the Public Policy Center at UMSL. "The population increases have been driven by intra-regional (county-to-county) movement."

Jerry Rombach, executive director of the Home Builders Association of Southwestern Illinois, said these numbers just solidify what was already known about the Illinois region's growth.

"It's pretty much just a shuffling of the region," Rombach said. "Most of the growth we're experiencing is built in growth."

By using IRS data, Laslo calculated the migration numbers by tracking the movement in the region by changes in the tax returns, associated with a person's county of residence.

Laslo said these numbers were only calculated using IRS records, not taking into account the number of births and deaths a year in each county.

The average gains and losses, based on an 11-year average, showed the greatest population influx was in Southwestern Illinois, especially in Madison, Monroe and Jersey counties, while the greatest net losses occurred in the city of St. Louis, St. Louis County and St. Clair County, respectively.

In April, the U.S. Census Bureau released the 2004 population estimates, which show a continued increase in population since 2000 in all five Illinois counties in the St. Louis region.

Madison County Board Chairman Alan Dunstan believes that more and more people are starting to recognize the pluses to living in Illinois.

"I think the pace (of the growth) is getting faster and I think it will continue to get faster in the future," Dunstan said.

Laslo said the reasons people are moving remain the same as in the past -- bigger homes, safer neighborhoods, better or different schools, closer to work or a new job.

Since this data was collected, the IRS has added four additional counties into the data for the St. Louis region: Bond, Greene and Macoupin counties in Illinois, and Washington County in Missouri.